Investigating the Relationship Between Birth Time Frame and National Football League Quarterback Success
by: Vincent L. Burrell
Many have postulated that children born after January one and before May of the same year have a distinct advantage in sports and various other activities. The belief is that being born earlier in the year provided an enormous advantage compared to those youths born later in the year--June thru December. Malcolm Gladwell, gained notoriety in his book Outliers, noted for youth hockey players in Canada, players that were born earlier in the year provided an enormous step up compared to those children born later in the year. This leads to those children born in earlier months of a given year with distinct mental and physical growth advantages as well as significantly larger experiential banks over their peers born in later months. Gladwell found evidence that these advantages lead to higher rates of success in youth hockey for those youths born earlier in a year than their younger counterparts born in the middle and end of that same year.
Gladwell’s research led to parents planning the birth of their children between the months of January and May of each year. In an attempt, to “Red Shirt” their children for school, thus gaining an advantage over other children in school. The term Red Shirt is used in collegiate sports to give athletes five years of National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) eligibility. A NCAA athlete can be Red Shirted their first year of college to gain one additional year of collegiate sports eligibility. Parents are trying the same thing with their children. The advantage is gained because a Red Shirt child is older than their counterparts when entering school, thus gaining a size and experience advantage.
This sounds plausible; however, for the position of a National Football League (NFL) quarterback (QB) the advantage is between your ears (your thinking ability) and shoulder blades (your heart). I postulate that children born between March 21 – April 19, July 23 – Aug 22, and November 22 – December 23 are genetically pre-dispositioned to handle the quick thinking and fearlessness needed to succeed as a NFL QB. I phrase these dates as “Fire Sign” birth dates. An explanation of each are detailed below.
March 21 thru April 19 - Creative and ambitious, there is nothing they cannot accomplish in life only if motivated enough. Ready to take on challenges, good in times of crisis, they are innovators that can give the initiative energy for any type of endeavor and cause. When they build some tact and awareness of other people’s needs, they become incredible managers and leaders, with a talent to give others energy and reason to fight for a shared goal.
July 23 – Aug 22 - With so much energy, they always strive for greatness. Whether they succeed or not depends mostly on how they focus their energy, and remain calm in a time of need. In general, they are natural born leaders and will fully grasp the importance of respect in their professional relationships. If they have the same respect for those above them on the success scale, as for those below, they will have a chance to move very far and be loved by everyone they work for, and who works for them.
November 22 – December 23 - Once a they feel where their direction should lead, they strive high and tend to achieve truly great things in their professional path. People born in this time frame have a broad mind and they are able to change perspective with ease, until they find the right version of events or reasons for anything they want to examine. Highly adjustable and with a deep understanding for different people and in general. In a team, this is someone who will give everything they’ve got for others to succeed (leadership). I have followed the most successful QBs in the NFL and have noticed a trend. The traits mentioned above are closely related to what NFL QBs need to succeed. According to experts listed below are 12 qualities of Top-level NFL Quarterbacks.
The qualities of an elite NFL quarterback include:
I will sample approximately 250 NFL QBs, past and present. I postulate that members born on the dates listed below are genetically pre-disposed to excel as a NFL QBs.
March 21 thru April 19 July 23 – Aug 22 November 22 – December 23.
In [10]:
# import packages
import pandas as pd # data management
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt # graphics
import urllib
import numpy as np
# IPython command, puts plots in notebook
%matplotlib inline
# check Python version
import datetime as dt
import sys
#versino 2.7
#print('Today is', dt.date.today())
#print('What version of Python are we running? \n', sys.version, sep='')
The following data was gathered from http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_career.htm and provides National Football League (NFL) Quarterback (QB) statistics since the inception of the NFL.
In [12]:
player = pd.read_csv('QBStats3.csv', header=0, delimiter=",")
In [13]:
player.set_index('Rank')
Out[13]:
In [14]:
zodiac = pd.read_csv('QBStats4.csv', header=0, delimiter=",")
In [15]:
zodiac.set_index('Month Range')
Out[15]:
In [16]:
player_size = player["Rank"].size
zodiac_size = zodiac["Range_Number"].size
player_with_zodiac = []
month_len = [31, 59, 90, 120, 151, 181, 212, 243, 273, 303, 333, 364]
months = ["January", "February", "March", "April", "May", "June", "July", "August", "September", "October", "November", "December"]
months_abbr = ["Jan", "Feb", "Mar", "Apr", "May", "Jun", "Jul", "Aug", "Sep", "Oct", "Nov", "Dec"]
In [17]:
for i in range(0, player_size):
birth = player["Birthday"][i].split(",")
month = birth[0].strip()
day = birth[1].strip()
index = months_abbr.index(month)
if index == 0:
birth_index = int(day)
else:
birth_index = month_len[index-1]+int(day)
for j in range(0, zodiac_size):
month_range = zodiac["Month Range"][j].split("-")
start = month_range[0].strip().split(" ")
end = month_range[1].strip().split(" ")
start_month = start[0].strip()
start_day = start[1].strip()
start_index = months.index(start_month)
if start_index == 0:
left_index = int(start_day)
else:
left_index = month_len[start_index - 1] + int(start_day)
end_month = end[0].strip()
end_day = end[1].strip()
end_index = months.index(end_month)
if end_index == 0:
right_index = int(end_day)
else:
right_index = month_len[end_index - 1] + int(end_day)
if (left_index <= birth_index <= right_index) or (left_index > right_index and (left_index <= birth_index <= 364 or birth_index <= right_index)):
player_with_zodiac.append({"name": player["Player"][i], "yds": player["Yds"][i], "sign": zodiac["Sign Designation"][j]})
break
In [18]:
for i in range(0, zodiac_size):
players = []
yards = []
#print zodiac["Sign Designation"][i]
for each in player_with_zodiac:
if each["sign"] == zodiac["Sign Designation"][i]:
players.append(each["name"])
yards.append(each["yds"])
y_pos = np.arange(len(players))
plt.bar(y_pos, yards, 0.4,align='center', alpha=0.5)
plt.xticks(y_pos, players, rotation=90)
plt.ylabel('Yards')
plt.title(zodiac["Sign Designation"][i])
plt.show()
Conclusion
Based on the data, it was discovered there is no one zodiac sign that dominates the passing leaders. Currently Peyton Manning is the passing leader with 71,940 yards passing and he is an Aries, which is a fire sign. However, the second most yards thrown by a quarterback is Brett Favre, and he falls under the sign of Libra, which is an air sign. Of the top ten passing leaders you have two fire signs, two air signs, three earth signs, and three water signs.